In recent days, the 4th edition Chinese paper currency has been actively traded. A careful observation by the friends found a phenomenon. Many currency traders joined the fourth edition to sweep the goods and the turnover was large. In addition to the traditional hot products, 805 , 8010, 9050 These types of products that were not favored by the public before were hot, the prices were rising, and the large orders were traded frequently. There were several single transactions of millions, and many of the sweeping products were coins from Beijing and Shanghai. The business, indicating that the gift market quietly started in the period close to the May 1st delisting, the pattern presented is that hot varieties continue to heat, and the popular varieties are no longer cold. In fact, most currency dealers are more cautious. After experiencing the ups and downs of so many markets, if there are no downstream customer needs and a large number of orders, the gift merchants are afraid to do so in millions of goods. The Spring Plumbing Duck Prophet, In the market, the currency dealer information is more sensitive and close to the real market demand.
Next, we analyze the market development since the delisting, the central bank announced the fourth edition of the delisting, more suddenly, did not reveal the slightest wind in advance, indicating that the central bank's confidential work is still doing a better job. There are not many friends who have truly full positions before the four-day delisting, including many currency traders, most of which are half positions or 2/3 positions. Most people follow the “dynamic balance principle of half-warehouse theory”. Delisting prices soared, many currency traders in the hands of the surplus is not much, need to cover their positions, in the nearly a month after the delisting, buying is mainly funded within the circle. Although the currency business is in the front line of the market, although it is sensitive to information, too much contact with information sources will affect macro thinking and strategic thinking. Therefore, too close to the front line of the market is not a good thing. For 7 years of consolidation, many currency traders have been more or less affected by the bear market thinking. The enthusiasm for scanning goods after the delisting has not been fully released, but with the continuous emptiness of supplies in the hands, the order of downstream customers Continuing to come, the currency dealers are no longer calm, joined the ranks of the sweeping army, thus opening the prelude to the full preparation for the delisting gift market.
Of course, some of my friends would say that gifts alone are not enough to support the market. Indeed, if the paper * currency alone is not enough for gift support, the current market situation, the off-site funds have not yet entered the market, the reason is :
one. The admission of off-site funds is time-consuming, and no one will enlarge the balance of the bank's current balance.
two. In addition, even if you have money, it will take time to resolve to enter a field you are not familiar with.
three. The money-making effect has not yet been presented on a large scale, and more than 90% of people are used to chasing and selling.
As far as the above analysis is concerned, OTC funds have not really entered the coin market yet. The current market conditions are only funds within the circle because the delisting ignited confidence. However, from now on, the second wave of the market is coming or that has already come. This is the gift market for the May 1st delisting. The “May 1” mentioned here does not refer specifically to the May 1st day, but This is a mid- to long-term gift consumption that occurs for the fourth edition of the delisting time node. According to the calculations in the circle, the average years before exiting the market, annual consumption of 300-500 million sets of seniors, small fours, and small fours, is expected to reach 10 million in 2018, especially for small four and small four because of the price. It is cheap and consumes a large proportion, that is to say, it will consume 1 million large pamphlets almost every month after May. It's really scary to think about this figure, and it's no wonder that the relatively large varieties have recently been consumed, such as 805,8010. It is very powerful, and it is higher than those of traditional hot varieties. This is because of the result of consumption.
Speaking of this, a paragraph is tentatively written. We can draw a conclusion that there are three waves after the fourth edition is withdrawn:
The first wave of the market - delisting market, because the central bank announced the withdrawal of the market and caused investment confidence within the circle, the performance of the market on the day of soaring 30% -50%;
The second wave of market - gift market, because of delisting, gift demand surge, in order to meet the gift book, a large number of currency dealers to buy the required species, the market has been opened, it is expected that in May there are individual species due to huge consumption , took the lead to open the gap, or the excess of 100% before the market, which species will be reached first? Everyone can predict it!
The third wave of the market - Off-site funds entering the market, with the continuous expansion of propaganda, the emergence of money-making effects, off-site funds are gradually entering the market, paper money has always been a niche market, a medium-sized stock of funds is sufficient When the coin market is upside down, how can there be so many four-dollar coins for you to buy? This is the beginning of the market doubled!
The four editions of paper* currency will be interpreted as such three-wave market. It is said that it is three waves, and more precisely, three forces. Of course, there is no strict distinction and division between each wave of the market and every strength. The three forces accompany each other and are superimposed on each other. In the next 3-5 years, there will be a round of four-currency super market, a conservative estimate of 3-5 times the increase, or 5-10 times, you are waiting for the slow harvest!